Schedule

12.00 - 12.30

Talk by Sumonkanti Das (Department of Quantitative Economics)

Title: Multilevel time series modeling of mobility trends in the Netherlands for small domains
(joint work with Harm Jan Boonstra and Jan van den Brakel)

Abstract: The purpose of the Dutch Travel Survey is to produce reliable estimates on mobility of the Dutch population. In this study, multilevel time-series (MTS) models have been developed to estimate reliable mobility trends of the Dutch population at several aggregation levels, accounting for discontinuities induced by two different redesigns, and outliers due to less reliable outcomes in one particular year. The target mobility variables in this paper are the average number of trip legs per person per day (pppd) and the average distance traveled per trip leg, where trip legs are characterized by motive and transportation modes for a particular journey. The MTS models for the target variables are fitted to annual input series of direct estimates and standard errors at the most detailed breakdown into 504 domains defined by the combination of sex, age-class, motive and mode for the period 1999-2017. Appropriate transformations for the direct estimates and Generalized Variance Functions to smooth the standard errors of the direct estimates are proposed. The models are fitted in an hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Smooth trend estimates at the most detailed domain level are computed from the model outputs and the predictions at higher aggregation levels calculated by aggregation of the most detailed domain predictions result in a numerically consistent set of trend estimates for all target variables. Additionally, model predictions for the distance per person per day, the total number of trip-legs per day and the distance per day are also derived from the two models proposed in this study. Model diagnostics have also been illustrated for evaluating the fitted models and the corresponding results. This model-based estimation method is implemented in 2019 by Statistics Netherlands for the production of official statistics on mobility for the aforementioned parameters and publication levels.

12.30 - 13:00

Talk by Niels Holtrop (Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management)

Title: All ads are not created equal: Display advertisement's copy and placement effects on clicks and conversions

Abstract: In today’s media ecosystem, advertisers face the challenge to create ad campaigns with the ability to engage consumers and ultimately increase conversions. Hence, they need guidance on how to design promising ad copies and on which websites to deliver these ads. In this study, the authors analyze how different message content and ad format elements influences consumers’ likelihood to click on an ad and subsequently convert on the advertising website. Additionally, they explore the effects of placing an ad on different websites. The main results suggest that message content and ad format that enhance engagement do not necessarily enhance conversions. Furthermore, several novel findings pertain to placement in social media and use of influencer marketing: display ads are effective on social media, especially with hard sell messages. Influencer ads increase engagement more than conversion and are more effective outside social media. A simulation reveals the impact of optimizing ad copy and placement decisions: optimizing ad copy decisions has larger effects than placement decisions and synergy exists between both decisions, offering further guidance to managers.

For questions or concerns, please contact us via info-ids@maastrichtuniversity.nl.

Organizers

School of Business and Economics

• Nalan Bastürk

IDS

• Karen Zegers
• Kody Moodley
• Vikas Jaiman